Gunners humiliated in Milan

Soccer Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AC Milan put Arsenal to the sword in convincing fashion at the San Siro, cruising to a 4-0 win over the English side in the first leg of the Champions League knockout round on Wednesday.

The Italian giants scored two goals in both halves as Kevin-Prince Boateng and Robinho gave the Rossoneri a two-goal lead by halftime, while another Robinho strike and a penalty kick from Zlatan Ibrahimovic sealed the win in the second half.

Robinho's brace gives him three Champions League goals for the season, while Ibrahimovic's late penalty sees him preserve his streak of scoring a goal in each of his Champions League appearances this year.

The home side went in front thanks to a beautiful finish in the 19th minute.

Boateng cushioned a pinpoint through ball with his chest on the right side of the box before smashing a volley on the turn into the upper corner of the goal. The ball rattled off the underside of the crossbar and crossed the goal line to hand Milan the lead in stunning fashion.

Antonio Nocerino nearly doubled the advantage moments later when he collected a ball on the right side of the box. The Italian midfielder dribbled inside before unleashing a rocket that sailed just inches high and wide of the goal.

Arsenal's failed attempt at an offside trap helped Milan extend the lead in the 38th minute.

Ibrahimovic broke free on the left flank and made a penetrating run down the side of the box. Arsenal's back four failed to recover as they waited for a raised flag from the assistant referee that never came. The Swedish hit man took advantage, centering the ball to Robinho who nodded his effort to the far post.

The Brazilian hooked up with Ibrahimovic again to produce Milan's third goal of the tie. Ibrahimovic slipped a pass inside to Robinho who capitalized on a fall from Thomas Vermaelen before firing a shot to beat Wojciech Szczesny at his near post.

Arsenal talisman Robin van Persie nearly grabbed a vital away goal in 66th minute with half-volley from close range, but Milan 'keeper Christian Abbiati thwarted the Dutchman's effort with a brilliant one-handed save.

Milan put the tie beyond any lingering doubt in the 78th minute when Ibrahimovic was brought down in the box by Johan Djourou.

The Swedish international slotted the ensuing penalty kick just inside the post to give the Rossoneri a more-than-comfortable 4-0 lead heading into the return leg.

The Gunners undeniably have a mountain to climb in the replay, which will be played on March 6 at the Emirates.

Zenit 3, Benfica 2

Saint Petersburg, Russia - Roman Shirokov scored twice to help Zenit win its first ever match in the knockout round of the Champions League as the Russian side edged Benfica, 3-2, at home on Wednesday.

The visitors grabbed the lead after 19 minutes when a free kick from Oscar Cardozo was stopped by Zenit goalkeeper Yuri Zhevnov but parried right into the path of Maxi Pereira. The Uruguayan defender calmly slotted the ball into the empty net to hand his side the opener.

Zenit responded quickly thanks to a classy finish from Shirokov. The 30-year- old connected on a cross in the 27th minute, guiding a one-time effort across the face of goal and into the far side of the net.

Another brilliant finish from Zenit saw the home side grab the lead in the 71st minute. A bouncing ball played in front of goal was met with great creativity as Sergei Semak flicked a shot behind his standing leg, off the far post and over the goal line.

Benfica took advantage of some more poor goalkeeping in the 87th minute when Zhevnov spilled a shot inside the six-yard box and patted the rebound directly in front of goal. Cardozo was at the right place at the right time and capitalized on the gaffe to level the score.

But Zenit restored its lead a minute later following some sloppy defending from the Portuguese side. A very poor attempt at a clearance helped Shirokov get through on goal. He evaded a defender and skipped past Benfica goalkeeper Artur before slipping a shot into the empty net from a tough angle.

Despite its one-goal deficit, Benfica is still well-positioned to progress as the two away goals mean that the Portuguese side would only have to claim a 1-0 win when the two sides meet at the Estadio da Luz on March 6.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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